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Nationalist Pundit

America First and Always!

Coronavirus Study Wrong

The Coronavirus study which became the basis of the Imperial College of London computer model was wrong.  VERY WRONG!  Drafted by an epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, (NOT historian Nial Ferguson), the study predicted dire infection and death rates for the UK and the United States.  The subsequent computer model predicted some 500,000 deaths in the UK and over 4 Million deaths in America.  The model assumed that at least 20 percent of the populations of both countries would become infected.  But, reality paints a different story.  Based on data from China, South Korea and now Italy, the potential infection rates are now much lower, so much so that new predictions are that the UK may only have some 20,000 deaths due to the Coronavirus.  Not much more than a typical flu season.

 

Yet, it was the Imperial College of London model that prompted much of the national policies for fighting the Coronavirus.  Such as shutting down whole nations and their economies.  Some government leaders are now wondering if this approach was the way to go?  Sweden, for example, has taken a different approach, known as 'herd immunity'.  The idea is to isolate and protect the most vulnerable while allowing the remaining population to carry on normally.  This larger group will eventually get infected with little effect and develop a natural immunity to the disease.  Meanwhile, the economy continues as normal and once a pool of recovered patients grows, they can serve as a bank of antibody providers to treat those more seriously ill with the time tested DOH Plasma method.  

There is no doubt that the world was caught off guard by the Coronavirus, which is remarkable in itself.  Considering that we had scares of H1N1, SARS, MERS and other disease outbreaks like ZIKA and Ebola.  Plus that our stockpiles of emergency medical equipment and supplies appear to have been extremely shortsighted.  After the 9/11 attacks, FEMA was directed to stockpile enough material to deal with the potential of handling refugees from two major cities being 'nuked' by terrorist 'dirty bombs'.  Roughly enough supplies to house and care for at least 10 Million people.

You have to figure that in such an attack, a substantial number of people would need medical attention, including items like ventilators for possible hundreds of thousands of victims.  But, in typical Washington fashion, a good deal of the $600 Billion dollars spent by our government in response to the 9/11 attacks was wasted.  Worse yet perhaps is that the many billions spent during the Cold War for Civil Defense was chucked away after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989.  Everything from medical supplies to government cheese rations were tossed out or given away.  

Critics of President Trump are making a big issue about Coronavirus testing failures.  Even now, that we are actually testing more than any other country.  A new Coronavirus test from Abbott Labs is about to be rolled out, allowing for a simple, point-of-contact test with results available in just 15 minutes.  Now, I have to say that I believe that shutting the country down for a few weeks was probably a good idea.  It bought us the time needed to fix problems, like the CDC being the sole lab to process tests, of which they could only handle about 50-60 per day.  Once the Abbott Lab test is deployed, any doctor office will be able to provide tests and process the tests on site immediately.  It took South Korea 8 weeks to test about 350,000 citizens, roughly 1-in-7 nationwide.  We've surpassed the raw number in just 8 days and we'll surpass the percentage ratio in far less than 8 weeks.

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